By the end of trading on June 5, 2020, amid the riots (because the protests have been overshadowed) and a pandemic (that disappeared when the riots started – very curious huh) the market rebounded to almost 27,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Job gains baffled experts who were predicting more job losses. Instead, the market added around 2.5 millions jobs for the month of May 2020. For context, the DOW was at 18,000 election night 2016. Before the pandemic, the DOW was hovering close to 30,000.

The fundamentals of the US economy was strong before the virus hit. Just like you’re better off having reserves in the event you get sick, so to is the economy. The market was continually adding jobs until first, people decided to hole up even before any order of shelter at home was given and two, a formal shutdown was announced. Unlike at a normal start of a recession, the economy was still at a growth trajectory before it was artificially halted. We will now wait and see if these gains can be sustained. At time of writing, New York, California, Illinois and a few other states remain shutdown. Those states add up to around 20% of GDP.

The following was sent to me by a good friend. He’s a retired actuary and we have been corresponding on a regular basis. A very good analysis of both current events that has gripped our entire nation.

THE PROTESTS AND THE PANDEMIC

After all the widespread demonstrations, protests and rioting that we have all witnessed, the worry now is we will experience increased infections and thereby increased deaths. I take the contrarian view and in fact, I boldly suggest that on the flip side of the widespread protests, there is an unexpected benefit. Fate has bestowed on us the opportunity to achieve “herd immunity” much faster. But we should not passively sit as bystanders. We should not waste a gift that fate has handed to us. It is now more important than ever to revise the suggested mitigation measures to reflect what has just happened. I pray that our leaders have the courage and conviction to truly lead. It is now more important than ever to implement focused and targeted measures specifically geared to those at-risk groups that we most need to protect. The protests have happened. What is done is done!

THE AT-RISK GROUPS: (1) THOSE OVER 60 (65) and (2) THOSE WITH UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS CO-MORBID WITH COVID-19
We should assume that a significant proportion of the protesters are already infected. We should assume that for this group as a whole, they view the virus as not of major concern to them. This is a prudent position to take.

It then becomes much more crucial to re-direct the mitigation measures to these at-risk groups. It is now more important than ever to communicate to these at-risk groups to follow the basic mitigation measures. Many of these groups have faithfully followed these measures in the past 2 to 2-1/2 months and now is not the time to relax.

To emphasize, only for these groups should we concentrate to implement these measures. Requiring the rest of the population, such as the young and healthy, to follow these measures 24/7 will just not work, unless we are ready for another civil unrest.

ABOUT COVID-19 FATALITIES
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is highly contagious. This is a widely held belief or accepted fact. Recent articles have suggested that as many as 80% of those infected may be asymptomatic. Further, that perhaps a significant portion of those that participated in the protests are likely already infected, asymptomatic and that they likely do not know. Their behavior actually suggests that even if they knew they were positive, either they did not care about infecting others or they feel strongly enough that the risk of acquiring COVID-19 is a secondary concern.

We all have read reports in the past week or so with headlines along the lines of “increased infections at a time when restrictions are easing up….” The implicit message here is that infection translates to certain death or a high likelihood of death. If you talk to enough people and ask them directly what these headlines mean to them, I think you will agree that this is the message conveyed to them. Most will infer that infection equates to certain death or a high likelihood of death.

Is this impression consistent with emerging experience? No, it is not. The data and much scientific-based research overwhelmingly suggest that this is not the case. The impact of COVID-19 is very heterogeneous. The overall Infection Fatality Rate, when used homogeneously, is very misleading. The virus impacts mostly the at-risk groups described above. The risk of dying from COVID-19 for those in the at-risk groups are multiples higher than from those not part of these groups.

THE “BET”
This is a contrarian view. This is a minority view. This is a controversial view; but it is an optimistic view. It is based from data.

I “bet” that there will be significant increases in infections because of the demonstrations and picketing. Most of these protesters are young, active and relatively healthy. There will be increased deaths but not to the extent that you may think. The big unknown here (as already described above) is the behavior of the at-risk groups. These groups have seen the demonstrations and have seen that social distancing and face masks have not been followed. They may think these behaviors are ok for them as well. In fact, to the contrary, they should be much more careful. They should continue adhering more closely to these safety measures. Even with these concerns, I will still “bet”, there will be much less fatalities.

I hope I am right. Its too late now anyway. The wolf is already in the barn. Those that were agile and fast (the protesters, the young and healthy in this analogy), already got bitten (infected) but they were able to run swiftly out of the barn (asymptomatic). The old and the sick now have to find a way to protect themselves. They should use the tools in the barn already given to them.

Are you willing to”bet” I am wrong? If I am wrong, I will gladly pay you my “bet”. If you accept your “winnings”, remember that you are accepting “blood money”. Are you so fearful that you are wishing that many deaths will happen just to prove your point? The data we have seen does not suggest that this will happen!

In an eighteen minute video, Candace Owens gives her reason for not supporting the idea that George Floyd is a martyr for the black community.

“For whatever reason it has become fashionable over the last five or six years for us to turn criminals into heroes overnight, and it is something that I find to be despicable and there’s something that I refuse to stand by any longer and I am not going to play a part in it — no matter how much pressure comes from black liberals and black conservatives as some token of people wanting you to believe that this is the only way you can be black,” – Candace Owens

Photo by: Daniel Pier/ Nur Via Getty Images

An article by Forbes, states that Target will temporarily close 175 stores. As I mentioned in my post Tragedy Followed by Tragedy, this is the cost of the actions of the rioters. Lost jobs that are normally filled by the residents of those communities. Moreover, residents of those communities would have to go out of the community for their needs making it inconvenient and by extension more expensive than before the riots.

‘The media does them no service by categorizing the lawlessness as peaceful and justified. The media doesn’t realize how condescending their excusing of bad behavior is to the very communities they purport to support. When the media expects the highest level of civility from one group then excuses another group of the same level of behavior, it is straightforward bigotry.

I hope that in future, all of us (media included) will be able to condemn bad acts regardless of what group commits the acts and regardless of what perceived excuse there is.

Photo by: Richard Tsong-Taatari of Star Tribune Via Getty Images.

A recent article by one of my favorite economists, Walter E. Williams, focused a hypothetical question: Where would you or I choose to live with a caveat, that a life of poverty is the fate? Given that each of us can come up with countless caveats, focusing the question is extremely important. In the article, Professor Williams goes through the myriad of benefits available to citizens (and at times non-citizens) of The United States.

In the same article, Professor Williams also gives us a resource. As his reputation is impeccable, I have made that site a permanent link on this blog. Look over to the right of any page of this blog and you will see the just facts link.

Today is my birthday and at that I am reminded why I’m A Grateful Immigrant.

A prayer held by whites and blacks in Houston where George Floyd grew up, should be shown just as much as the riots. Enough said.

The reports from two Medical Examiners, one by the Hennepin County Medical Examiner and the other by two private doctors representing George Floyd’s Family, has concluded that Mr. Floyd’s death was a homicide. That was what an overwhelming number of people knew to be the cause. That is what sparked outrage. That was due to the inhumanity of the Police Officers involved.

Although there are differences in the two reports, which will be vigorously examined during ex-officer Derek Chauvin’s trial, the cause of death was asphyxia. Simply, oxygen flow to his brain was restricted. Everyone saw the Police Officer kneeling on George Floyd’s neck for at least 8 straight minutes.

For most including myself, all the other details are for the officers involved sentencing. What reasonable people are expecting is that perpetrators be charged to the fullest extent of the law. Nothing less.

Al

From a brilliant young writer. This article is bound to get both sides talking. When I proposed a hypothetical situation to my 20 year old daughter, she had what I would consider a reasonable response. The hypothetical was that she was at work and they get caught off guard and rioters begin to loot and destroy her place of work. What would she do? She said she would get out as safely as she can and let them have at it. Rational, right? To me and millions like me, it is.

Now, add a layer. You’re the owner of a family business. Ok, let’s add all the emotional triggers. You put you’re blood, sweat and tears into it. What would you do? Hopefully the same thing. Although, it’s not as easy for many, just to walk away.

I say these because, In situations such as the two hypotheticals, it was really the duty of people we hired or elected to do their job. We have empowered them to protect us. We gave them the enormous legal, moral and ethical use of force. Unfortunately, just like what happened to George Floyd, the people we hired and elected to protect us, didn’t. We were betrayed by them. To be clear, not all of them, but enough for us to say where we’re you and why didn’t you do your job?

Daniel Horowitz’s article is to inform (for some remind) us that we gave our elected leaders enormous power, to primarily, protect us,- and they didn’t.

Clips from “Death Of A Nation.” 2018.

President Trump tweeted Sunday morning May 31, 2020 that the group called Antifa (Short for Anti-fascist) “will” be declared a domestic terrorist group. Key phrase “will be.” This means we will wait when it’s actually declared. If he does, the Patriot Act passed in 2001 will be the guiding law in the enhanced surveilling, apprehending and ultimately eliminating such groups.

There is already pushback on the announcement. CNN reporting that experts claim unconstitutionality of such declaration. However, the article by Evan Perez and Jason Hoffman does not name the current and former officials they are crediting for their article. The only positive identification in their article is of the ACLU and it’s National Security Project Director, Hina Shamsi. Director Shamsi says there is “no legal authority for designating a domestic group” as a terrorist organization.