In troubled times such as these, I could be a pessimist and not lose. Pessimists never do. Or, I could as I have tried to do, be cautious, aware, but ultimately optimistic. There’s a big chance I could lose in my optimism of things to come. However, I’m encouraged in it, because of the underlying essence of the unrest we are in. I’ll explain what I mean shortly. But first, let me share a story that one of our past presidents loved to tell. This President led us out of difficult times. To be sure we’ve had many. This particular one however, had a knack for telling stories that disarmed even his fiercest critics.
The Gipper – Ronald Reagan – our 40th President

This particular story of his, was, in my view, The Gipper’s way of refocusing his troops. In that, when all they see is hardship, challenges and mayhem, he had them look for the good they can glean from dire situations.

The story…

“The joke concerns twin boys of five or six. Worried that the boys had developed extreme personalities – one was a total pessimist, the other a total optimist – their parents took them to a psychiatrist.”

“First the psychiatrist treated the pessimist. Trying to brighten his outlook, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with brand-new toys. But instead of yelping with delight, the little boy burst into tears. ‘What’s the matter?’ the psychiatrist asked, baffled. ‘Don’t you want to play with any of the toys?’ ‘Yes,’ the little boy bawled, ‘but if I did I’d only break them.’”

“Next the psychiatrist treated the optimist. Trying to dampen his out look, the psychiatrist took him to a room piled to the ceiling with horse manure. But instead of wrinkling his nose in disgust, the optimist emitted just the yelp of delight the psychiatrist had been hoping to hear from his brother, the pessimist. Then he clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. ‘What do you think you’re doing?’ the psychiatrist asked, just as baffled by the optimist as he had been by the pessimist. ‘With all this manure,’ the little boy replied, beaming, ‘there must be a pony in here somewhere!’” – excerpted from How Ronald Reagan Changed My Life by Peter Robinson

Now to my optimism and why I think there’s a pony in our future. The underlying essence that is there to see, in all that has transpired, is our collective value for life and justice. We locked down, rightly or wrongly, to save as many lives as we can from a novel virus that killed and continues to do so. We asked to be let go, and to let us continue with our lives, because we were willing to face danger, to again save our lives and of those we love, by providing for them, so nobody else has to.

Then, we were collectively angered, when we saw a man murdered by people sworn to protect lives. Not only were we angry, we also felt helpless and betrayed. That combination turned our anger into outrage! We lashed out! Some with words and screams and civil disobedience.

Sadly however, we also saw more senseless death and destruction. We forgot the advice we’ve been given ages ago, – never act in anger, more often than not, you’re bound to regret it. For sure there will be regrets. With the multiple crises we’ve gone through, it’s guaranteed. But, we will endure. We always do.

So, let’s not destroy our institutions. Instead, let’s strengthen them. We weed out the bad ones, as we do in any institution we erect to serve and protect us. But we also need to look inward. – To be circumspect. John Kennedy had that famous line about country and individual. My interpretation of it is not necessarily literal. I believe he was asking us to ask ourselves, how we can better our own lives and in turn further strengthen our country.

As a nation, we’ve had our fights. We were at blows. Blood was drawn. But first and foremost, we are Americans! We value life! We die for justice. Perfect, we are not. But we are still that beacon of hope, and I agree with The Gipper, – We are still That Shining City On A Hill.

Carousel, anyone?

Featured photo from Today’s Parent (todaysparent.com)

I got a message from a much wiser older cousin who sent me a link to an open letter to President Trump. My cousin also reminds me that we should pray harder. Advice heeded and adopted.

President Trump gets an open letter from an unlikely ally. Unlikely because he’s been lambasted by church leaders. Most recent and prominent of those critics is Washington’s Archbishop Wilton Gregory who criticized The President’s timing when he visited “The John Paul II Shrine” in Washington D.C. So when Titans attack another Titan comes ready to defend.

The letter in the link is from + Carlo Maria Viganò Titular Archbishop of Ulpiana
Former Apostolic Nuncio to the United States of America. The letter is edifying. It also shows that groups, whether by race, religion etcetera, don’t always speak in one monolithic voice.

Another way of asking this question, but not limited to these two – is – should the sins of the father be borne by the son? These questions are framed to solicit feelings of unfairness. I also purposely used the word borne instead of “paid” and I’ll explain why shortly.

Is it really just unfair? Unfair is someone jumping in line or something like that. The idea contained in the questions are worse than unfair – it’s unjust! But that’s exactly what some are asking us to do. Do the time for someone else’s crime.

I used borne instead of paid because the same people are saying that sins that were committed over one hundred years ago, need to be perpetually borne by people who had nothing to with them. If I used paid, it says that the debt will finally be squared. But it can never be squared – not to them. So borne is appropriate in the sense that we are collectively bearing the debts of the past. How? When the gentrified class claims endemic social injustice, it assigns the sins of the father on the son. We are – the son.

Out of respect for your time, I’ll just post two pictures and explain in them who were perpetrators and should pay for their actions and who were innocent “sons” being made to suffer the consequences of the actions of the perpetrators.

These officers were responsible for the specific injustice of George Floyd’s death.

These are victims of the injustice of the riots. These victims were made to pay for sins they did not commit.

In my next post, I’ll talk about the saying “There’s a pony in there somewhere.” In the meantime be well and God bless us all.

By the end of trading on June 5, 2020, amid the riots (because the protests have been overshadowed) and a pandemic (that disappeared when the riots started – very curious huh) the market rebounded to almost 27,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Job gains baffled experts who were predicting more job losses. Instead, the market added around 2.5 millions jobs for the month of May 2020. For context, the DOW was at 18,000 election night 2016. Before the pandemic, the DOW was hovering close to 30,000.

The fundamentals of the US economy was strong before the virus hit. Just like you’re better off having reserves in the event you get sick, so to is the economy. The market was continually adding jobs until first, people decided to hole up even before any order of shelter at home was given and two, a formal shutdown was announced. Unlike at a normal start of a recession, the economy was still at a growth trajectory before it was artificially halted. We will now wait and see if these gains can be sustained. At time of writing, New York, California, Illinois and a few other states remain shutdown. Those states add up to around 20% of GDP.

The following was sent to me by a good friend. He’s a retired actuary and we have been corresponding on a regular basis. A very good analysis of both current events that has gripped our entire nation.

THE PROTESTS AND THE PANDEMIC

After all the widespread demonstrations, protests and rioting that we have all witnessed, the worry now is we will experience increased infections and thereby increased deaths. I take the contrarian view and in fact, I boldly suggest that on the flip side of the widespread protests, there is an unexpected benefit. Fate has bestowed on us the opportunity to achieve “herd immunity” much faster. But we should not passively sit as bystanders. We should not waste a gift that fate has handed to us. It is now more important than ever to revise the suggested mitigation measures to reflect what has just happened. I pray that our leaders have the courage and conviction to truly lead. It is now more important than ever to implement focused and targeted measures specifically geared to those at-risk groups that we most need to protect. The protests have happened. What is done is done!

THE AT-RISK GROUPS: (1) THOSE OVER 60 (65) and (2) THOSE WITH UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS CO-MORBID WITH COVID-19
We should assume that a significant proportion of the protesters are already infected. We should assume that for this group as a whole, they view the virus as not of major concern to them. This is a prudent position to take.

It then becomes much more crucial to re-direct the mitigation measures to these at-risk groups. It is now more important than ever to communicate to these at-risk groups to follow the basic mitigation measures. Many of these groups have faithfully followed these measures in the past 2 to 2-1/2 months and now is not the time to relax.

To emphasize, only for these groups should we concentrate to implement these measures. Requiring the rest of the population, such as the young and healthy, to follow these measures 24/7 will just not work, unless we are ready for another civil unrest.

ABOUT COVID-19 FATALITIES
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is highly contagious. This is a widely held belief or accepted fact. Recent articles have suggested that as many as 80% of those infected may be asymptomatic. Further, that perhaps a significant portion of those that participated in the protests are likely already infected, asymptomatic and that they likely do not know. Their behavior actually suggests that even if they knew they were positive, either they did not care about infecting others or they feel strongly enough that the risk of acquiring COVID-19 is a secondary concern.

We all have read reports in the past week or so with headlines along the lines of “increased infections at a time when restrictions are easing up….” The implicit message here is that infection translates to certain death or a high likelihood of death. If you talk to enough people and ask them directly what these headlines mean to them, I think you will agree that this is the message conveyed to them. Most will infer that infection equates to certain death or a high likelihood of death.

Is this impression consistent with emerging experience? No, it is not. The data and much scientific-based research overwhelmingly suggest that this is not the case. The impact of COVID-19 is very heterogeneous. The overall Infection Fatality Rate, when used homogeneously, is very misleading. The virus impacts mostly the at-risk groups described above. The risk of dying from COVID-19 for those in the at-risk groups are multiples higher than from those not part of these groups.

THE “BET”
This is a contrarian view. This is a minority view. This is a controversial view; but it is an optimistic view. It is based from data.

I “bet” that there will be significant increases in infections because of the demonstrations and picketing. Most of these protesters are young, active and relatively healthy. There will be increased deaths but not to the extent that you may think. The big unknown here (as already described above) is the behavior of the at-risk groups. These groups have seen the demonstrations and have seen that social distancing and face masks have not been followed. They may think these behaviors are ok for them as well. In fact, to the contrary, they should be much more careful. They should continue adhering more closely to these safety measures. Even with these concerns, I will still “bet”, there will be much less fatalities.

I hope I am right. Its too late now anyway. The wolf is already in the barn. Those that were agile and fast (the protesters, the young and healthy in this analogy), already got bitten (infected) but they were able to run swiftly out of the barn (asymptomatic). The old and the sick now have to find a way to protect themselves. They should use the tools in the barn already given to them.

Are you willing to”bet” I am wrong? If I am wrong, I will gladly pay you my “bet”. If you accept your “winnings”, remember that you are accepting “blood money”. Are you so fearful that you are wishing that many deaths will happen just to prove your point? The data we have seen does not suggest that this will happen!

In an eighteen minute video, Candace Owens gives her reason for not supporting the idea that George Floyd is a martyr for the black community.

“For whatever reason it has become fashionable over the last five or six years for us to turn criminals into heroes overnight, and it is something that I find to be despicable and there’s something that I refuse to stand by any longer and I am not going to play a part in it — no matter how much pressure comes from black liberals and black conservatives as some token of people wanting you to believe that this is the only way you can be black,” – Candace Owens

Photo by: Daniel Pier/ Nur Via Getty Images

An article by Forbes, states that Target will temporarily close 175 stores. As I mentioned in my post Tragedy Followed by Tragedy, this is the cost of the actions of the rioters. Lost jobs that are normally filled by the residents of those communities. Moreover, residents of those communities would have to go out of the community for their needs making it inconvenient and by extension more expensive than before the riots.

‘The media does them no service by categorizing the lawlessness as peaceful and justified. The media doesn’t realize how condescending their excusing of bad behavior is to the very communities they purport to support. When the media expects the highest level of civility from one group then excuses another group of the same level of behavior, it is straightforward bigotry.

I hope that in future, all of us (media included) will be able to condemn bad acts regardless of what group commits the acts and regardless of what perceived excuse there is.

Photo by: Richard Tsong-Taatari of Star Tribune Via Getty Images.

A recent article by one of my favorite economists, Walter E. Williams, focused a hypothetical question: Where would you or I choose to live with a caveat, that a life of poverty is the fate? Given that each of us can come up with countless caveats, focusing the question is extremely important. In the article, Professor Williams goes through the myriad of benefits available to citizens (and at times non-citizens) of The United States.

In the same article, Professor Williams also gives us a resource. As his reputation is impeccable, I have made that site a permanent link on this blog. Look over to the right of any page of this blog and you will see the just facts link.

Today is my birthday and at that I am reminded why I’m A Grateful Immigrant.

A prayer held by whites and blacks in Houston where George Floyd grew up, should be shown just as much as the riots. Enough said.

The reports from two Medical Examiners, one by the Hennepin County Medical Examiner and the other by two private doctors representing George Floyd’s Family, has concluded that Mr. Floyd’s death was a homicide. That was what an overwhelming number of people knew to be the cause. That is what sparked outrage. That was due to the inhumanity of the Police Officers involved.

Although there are differences in the two reports, which will be vigorously examined during ex-officer Derek Chauvin’s trial, the cause of death was asphyxia. Simply, oxygen flow to his brain was restricted. Everyone saw the Police Officer kneeling on George Floyd’s neck for at least 8 straight minutes.

For most including myself, all the other details are for the officers involved sentencing. What reasonable people are expecting is that perpetrators be charged to the fullest extent of the law. Nothing less.

Al