The following was sent to me by a good friend. He’s a retired actuary and we have been corresponding on a regular basis. A very good analysis of both current events that has gripped our entire nation.
THE PROTESTS AND THE PANDEMIC
After all the widespread demonstrations, protests and rioting that we have all witnessed, the worry now is we will experience increased infections and thereby increased deaths. I take the contrarian view and in fact, I boldly suggest that on the flip side of the widespread protests, there is an unexpected benefit. Fate has bestowed on us the opportunity to achieve “herd immunity” much faster. But we should not passively sit as bystanders. We should not waste a gift that fate has handed to us. It is now more important than ever to revise the suggested mitigation measures to reflect what has just happened. I pray that our leaders have the courage and conviction to truly lead. It is now more important than ever to implement focused and targeted measures specifically geared to those at-risk groups that we most need to protect. The protests have happened. What is done is done!
THE AT-RISK GROUPS: (1) THOSE OVER 60 (65) and (2) THOSE WITH UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS CO-MORBID WITH COVID-19
We should assume that a significant proportion of the protesters are already infected. We should assume that for this group as a whole, they view the virus as not of major concern to them. This is a prudent position to take.
It then becomes much more crucial to re-direct the mitigation measures to these at-risk groups. It is now more important than ever to communicate to these at-risk groups to follow the basic mitigation measures. Many of these groups have faithfully followed these measures in the past 2 to 2-1/2 months and now is not the time to relax.
To emphasize, only for these groups should we concentrate to implement these measures. Requiring the rest of the population, such as the young and healthy, to follow these measures 24/7 will just not work, unless we are ready for another civil unrest.
ABOUT COVID-19 FATALITIES
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is highly contagious. This is a widely held belief or accepted fact. Recent articles have suggested that as many as 80% of those infected may be asymptomatic. Further, that perhaps a significant portion of those that participated in the protests are likely already infected, asymptomatic and that they likely do not know. Their behavior actually suggests that even if they knew they were positive, either they did not care about infecting others or they feel strongly enough that the risk of acquiring COVID-19 is a secondary concern.
We all have read reports in the past week or so with headlines along the lines of “increased infections at a time when restrictions are easing up….” The implicit message here is that infection translates to certain death or a high likelihood of death. If you talk to enough people and ask them directly what these headlines mean to them, I think you will agree that this is the message conveyed to them. Most will infer that infection equates to certain death or a high likelihood of death.
Is this impression consistent with emerging experience? No, it is not. The data and much scientific-based research overwhelmingly suggest that this is not the case. The impact of COVID-19 is very heterogeneous. The overall Infection Fatality Rate, when used homogeneously, is very misleading. The virus impacts mostly the at-risk groups described above. The risk of dying from COVID-19 for those in the at-risk groups are multiples higher than from those not part of these groups.
THE “BET”
This is a contrarian view. This is a minority view. This is a controversial view; but it is an optimistic view. It is based from data.
I “bet” that there will be significant increases in infections because of the demonstrations and picketing. Most of these protesters are young, active and relatively healthy. There will be increased deaths but not to the extent that you may think. The big unknown here (as already described above) is the behavior of the at-risk groups. These groups have seen the demonstrations and have seen that social distancing and face masks have not been followed. They may think these behaviors are ok for them as well. In fact, to the contrary, they should be much more careful. They should continue adhering more closely to these safety measures. Even with these concerns, I will still “bet”, there will be much less fatalities.
I hope I am right. Its too late now anyway. The wolf is already in the barn. Those that were agile and fast (the protesters, the young and healthy in this analogy), already got bitten (infected) but they were able to run swiftly out of the barn (asymptomatic). The old and the sick now have to find a way to protect themselves. They should use the tools in the barn already given to them.
Are you willing to”bet” I am wrong? If I am wrong, I will gladly pay you my “bet”. If you accept your “winnings”, remember that you are accepting “blood money”. Are you so fearful that you are wishing that many deaths will happen just to prove your point? The data we have seen does not suggest that this will happen!
Grateful Immigrant 